The impact of credit on income poverty in urban Mexico: An endogeneity-corrected estimation

In recent years, an important number of impact studies have attempted to examine the effect of credit on income poverty; however, many of these studies have not paid sufficient attention to the problems of endogeneity and selection bias. The few exceptional cases have employed econometric techniques that work at the village level. The problem is that the concept of village is inappropriate in the urban context where a large percentage of microfinance organisations in the developing world actually operate. This paper presents an econometric approach which controls for endogeneity and self-selection using data from a quasi-experiment designed at the household level, and conducted in three urban settlements in the surroundings of the Metropolitan area of Mexico City. The paper provides an estimation of the impact of credit, employing different equivalence scales in order to measure the sensitivity of the poverty impact to the intra-household distribution of welfare. We find a link between poverty impacts and lending technology. Group-based lending programmes are more effective in reducing the poverty gap but in doing so, they achieve insignificant impacts on the poverty incidence. By contrast, individual lending programmes reported significant and small impacts at the upper limits of deprivation but insignificant impacts on the poverty gap

The impact of credit on income poverty in urban Mexico: An endogeneity-corrected estimation

In recent years, an important number of impact studies have attempted to examine the effect of credit on income poverty; however, many of these studies have not paid sufficient attention to the problems of endogeneity and selection bias. The few exceptional cases have employed econometric techniques that work at the village level. The problem is that the concept of village is inappropriate in the urban context where a large percentage of microfinance organisations in the developing world actually operate. This paper presents an econometric approach which controls for endogeneity and self-selection using data from a quasi-experiment designed at the household level, and conducted in three urban settlements in the surroundings of the Metropolitan area of Mexico City. The paper provides an estimation of the impact of credit, employing different equivalence scales in order to measure the sensitivity of the poverty impact to the intra-household distribution of welfare. We find a link between poverty impacts and lending technology. Group-based lending programmes are more effective in reducing the poverty gap but in doing so, they achieve insignificant impacts on the poverty incidence. By contrast, individual lending programmes reported significant and small impacts at the upper limits of deprivation but insignificant impacts on the poverty gap

Poverty dynamics and graduation from conditional cash transfers: a transition model for Mexico’s Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera program

The effects of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) on poverty and well-being have been widely studied. However, there is limited knowledge on how a CCT should respond to the dynamics of poverty. How should program administrators treat beneficiaries that exit poverty in period t-1, but exhibit a high probability of falling into poverty in period t? This is a relevant, yet unanswered question. This paper provides an analysis of the implications of poverty dynamics in the implementation of graduation strategies of CCTs, taking Mexico’s Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera (POP) program as reference case. We propose a Markovian transition model that allows to control for unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence, and attrition. The model provides a framework for a generic graduation condition that can be applied to cash transfer programs that follow well-defined eligibility income thresholds. Overall, we find that only one-third of program beneficiaries that were poor in 2002 exhibited low probabilities of becoming poor in 2009–12 and therefore could be regarded as true ‘graduates’ of the program. We also find that the ‘recertification’ process of POP—which takes place every three years—would be more efficient if it took place every 3.7 and 5.1 years in urban and rural areas, respectively

What Can Experiments Tell Us About How to Improve Government Performance?

In recent years, experimental methods have been both highly celebrated, and roundly criticized, as a means of addressing core questions in the social sciences. They have received particular attention in the analysis of development interventions. This paper focuses on two key questions: (1) what have been the main contributions of RCTs to the study of government performance? and (2) what could be the contributions, and relatedly the limits? It draws inter alia on a new systematic review of experimental and quasi-experimental studies on governance to consider both the contributions and limits of RCTs in the extant literature. A final section introduces the studies included in this symposium in light of this discussion. Collectively, the studies push beyond polarized debates over experimental methods towards a new middle ground, considering both how experimental work can better address identified weaknesses and how experimental and non-experimental techniques can be combined most fruitfully

The impacts of the food, fuel and financial crises on poor and vulnerable households in Nigeria: A retrospective approach to research inquiry

This article examines the impacts of the financial, food and fuel crises on poor and vulnerable households in two states of Nigeria: Lagos and Kano. It uses retrospective household-level data to analyze the impacts of induced price variability on household welfare. The results indicate that aggregate shocks have significant adverse effects on household consumption, schooling and child labour decisions, with a degree of impact heterogeneity across regions and rural and urban areas of the country. We find that the coping strategies adopted by the poor to deal with the short-term effects of the crises can lock households in a low-income equilibrium or poverty trap. Provided that covariate shocks exacerbate these effects, they become central for policy design

Does aid support democracy? A systematic review of the literature

This study draws on a rigorous systematic review—to our knowledge the first in this area—to take stock of the literature on aid and democracy. It asks: Does aid—especially democracy aid—have positive impact on democracy? How? What factors most influence its impact? In so doing, it considers studies that explicitly focus on ‘democracy aid’ as an aggregate category, its subcomponents (e.g. aid to elections), and ‘developmental aid’. Overall, the evidence suggests that i) democracy aid generally supports rather than hinders democracy building around the world; ii) aid modalities influence the effectiveness of democracy aid; and iii) democracy aid is more associated with positive impact on democracy than developmental aid, probably because it targets key institutions and agents of democratic change. The review presents a new analytical framework for considering the evidence, bringing together core theories of democratization with work on foreign aid effectiveness. Overall, the evidence is most consistent with institutional and agent-based theories of exogenous democratization, and least consistent with expectations drawn from structural theories that would imply stronger positive impact for developmental aid on democratization

Ethnic Heterogeneity and Public Goods Provision in Zambia: Evidence of a Subnational "Diversity Dividend"

The “diversity debit” hypothesis – that ethnic diversity has a negative impact on social, economic, and political outcomes – has been widely accepted in the literature. Indeed, with respect to public goods provision – the focus of this article – the conventional wisdom holds that a negative relationship between ethnic heterogeneity and public goods provision is so well-established empirically that future research should abandon examination of whether such a relationship exists and focus instead on why it exists, that is, on the mechanisms underlying a negative relationship. This article challenges the conventional wisdom on empirical grounds. It demonstrates at the sub-national level strong evidence for a “diversity dividend” – that is, a positive relationship between ethnic heterogeneity and some measures of public goods provision, in particular welfare outcomes related to publicly provided goods and services. Building on the literature, the article draws on new analysis at district level for Zambia, using a new dataset compiled by the authors from administrative, budget, and survey data, which cover a broader range of public goods outcomes than previous work, including information on both budgetary and welfare outcomes. The article explores why relationships may differ for sub-national budgetary and welfare outcomes, considering separate models for each. Analysis shows results to be robust across a variety of alternative specifications and models. Given the more nuanced relationship between ethnic diversity and public goods provision documented, the article argues that the key task for future work is not to address why the relationship is negative, but to study under what conditions such direction holds true, and the mechanisms that underlie a diversity dividend. It concludes by considering key explanatory hypotheses against the Zambian data to identify promising areas for such theory development. More broadly, while the diversity debit hypothesis highlights the costs of diversity and could be interpreted as providing support for polices that minimize it, the findings in this article are consistent with a view that diversity can be good for communities, not only for normative reasons, but also because, under some conditions, it can support concrete welfare gains